A shaky economy: what it means for ad spend

Between AI jitters, wars, flip-flopping tariffs, government shutdowns, and a volatile stock market, the economy is constantly haunted by the very-real risk of recession, with no upswing in sight.  

And these kinds of macroeconomic changes don’t just affect Wall Street or big brands. They ripple through ad budgets, reshape consumer behavior, and ultimately show up in your RPMs.

At Raptive, we spend a lot of time trying to make sense of all this so you don’t have to. We pore over many graphs (like this one), scan headlines, attend events, and find the smartest people in the room to ask: What’s going on? What’s next? And how do we help creators prepare?

This helps us pinpoint the latest trends in programmatic advertising and what independent creators should be thinking about right now in a climate of extreme uncertainty.

Ripple effects in motion

A rollercoaster of tariffs are in play. Costs of consumer goods and healthcare are up. At the same time, the federal government is slashing spending in areas that impact jobs, services, and general confidence. 

These factors can be a cause for real concern for anyone who relies on ad revenue. 

RPMs at Raptive continue to be strong, thanks to the work our team does to improve our ad code, direct sales, and ad partnerships. These efforts will continue to drive RPMs up regardless of the economic environment. But with all the uncertainty in the air, we’re watching for emerging indications that advertisers may be spending much slower than we’d typically expect. 

We’re keeping an eye on how things might shift because when the economy slows down, ad budgets usually follow.

How advertisers react when things get uncertain

Advertising is an investment in future sales. If advertisers think that spending $1 today will help them generate $5 in future sales, they’ll make that investment. If they don’t believe they’ll make that $5, they may save that initial $1 or invest it in a different short-term priority. 

That means many industries might see slower momentum, which could trickle down to ad budgets. We’ve been seeing a lot of that with the uncertainty of recent months. 

Industry predictions still favor overall growth, but it’s possible we’ll see a dip in ad spend while brands stay flexible, observing consumer behavior patterns to determine the right approach. And of course, there’s the influx of AI slop, which adds an extra layer to it all.  

We also see a heightened focus on brand safety during uncertain times. When the economy is volatile and budgets are tight, advertisers tend to be more selective about where and how their brands appear. As a result, they may pull back spend over benign issues or perceived risks, especially when AI-driven tools take words or content out of context. 

What does this mean for creators?

While we can’t say for certain if or when things will level out, ad spend has been down in recent months, and advertisers may be reallocating more funds to sources like TikTok and CTV. 

In the 2008 recession, overall ad spend dropped by 13%. Digital held up better, dipping just 2%, but that still meant real revenue loss for creators and publishers. More recent economic shocks, like the early COVID lockdowns, the 2023 banking crisis, and the onset of the war in Ukraine were shorter in duration but still caused meaningful disruptions. 

This time, we’re seeing multiple pressure points building at once: inflation, tariffs, budget cuts, and global instability. That combination has the potential to stretch out uncertainty and squeeze advertiser budgets even harder.

Ultimately, you can’t control the economy, but you can control how you show up in it. And we’ve seen time and again that creators who build strong foundations weather tough seasons and come out even stronger.

Diversify your traffic

Don’t let algorithms decide your fate. Expanding where your traffic comes from can protect you from platform shifts and open up new audiences. Whether it’s leaning into your social strategy, investing in SEO, building your newsletter journey, or spreading out your digital footprint, diversifying gives you more control and more stability.

Build direct connections

Show up in ways that go beyond a single platform or post. Your brand, your voice, your presence across platforms? That’s what builds trust. It’s about showing up consistently, creating community, and giving people a reason to stick with you, not just the algorithm. When your audience knows you, they’ll follow you wherever you go.

Make sure your ad layout is working hard

A well-optimized layout can make a big difference in your earnings. We’ve got tools to test and tweak, and real humans who can walk you through what’s working best for your site. As ad spend bounces back, sites that drove results for advertisers in the downturn will be best positioned to pull in higher RPMs. Let us help you figure this part out!

Check the Brand Safety tab in your Raptive dashboard

If you’re seeing flagged posts that aren’t generating a large amount of traffic, they can typically be ignored, but issues on high-traffic pages can usually be addressed with a few simple tweaks.

For Raptive creators, we also have this resource that offers more tips. 

No one knows if or when economic conditions will improve, but we have a commitment to you. Whether the economy speeds up or slows down, our focus stays the same: protecting your revenue and helping your business thrive.

You don’t have to ride this roller coaster alone—we’re in your corner, ready to tackle whatever comes next.